Confidence Shifts Could Be Late-Cycle Red Flags
Since 1976, Recessions Have Started 23 Months After
Earnings Peaks
Solid but Slower Earnings Growth in Q4; Bigger Slowdown
Lies Ahead
The Bar has been Significantly Lowered for the First Quarter
Stocks Take a Year to Recapture Pre-Bear Market Peaks
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A Strong Start to 2019 for Diversified Investors
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Fed Fund Futures Call for Long-Term Fed Pause
Rates Are Historically Low Compared to Past Tightening Cycles
Big Surge In 4-Week Highs
Large Thrusts of S&P 500 Index Component 4-Week Highs Have Led to Strong Future Returns
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>
Most Recent
Strong Future
Returns
Big Surge in
4-Week Highs
Rates Are
Historically Low
Fed Fund
Futures
Strong Start for Diversified Investors
Bar Lowered for First Quarter
Year to Recapture Pre-Bear Peaks
Solid but Slower Q4 Earnings Growth
Recessions After Earnings Peaks
Confidence Shifts Could Be Red Flags
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