Thomson Reuters, LPL Research 08/24/18
Note: Revenue and earnings growth statistics are a blend of actual results and Thomson Reuters consensus forecasts for companies that have not yet reported. Trailing earnings cover the four quarters ending Q2 2018 and include estimates for Q2 2018, while forward earnings cover the four quarters beginning Q3 2018.
Any revenue forecasts presented are based on Thomson Reuters consensus. Any earnings forecasts are based on Thomson Reuters consensus, plus the long-term historical average for upside to estimates of 3%.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted.
All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
The S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
Earnings per share (EPS) is the portion of a company’s profit allocated to each outstanding share of common stock. EPS serves as an indicator of a company’s profitability. Earnings per share is generally considered to be the single
most important variable in determining a share’s price. It is also a major component used to calculate the price-to-earnings valuation ratio.
Because of their narrow focus, specialty sector investing, such as healthcare, financials, or energy, will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors
Source: LPL Research 07/25/18
A CCI score of zero represents the baseline conditions in 2009, and subsequent CCI scores should be interpreted as a coincident measure of economic health in relation to this
A change in the sponsor of the retail sales component of the index starting in September 2015 required a recalibration of the data from the change forward.
The change had a minimal impact on
the level and direction of the index and resulted in a net change of under five points from its prior value in any
The VIX is a measure of the volatility implied in the prices of options
contracts for the S&P 500. It is a
market-based estimate of future volatility. When sentiment reaches one extreme
or the other, the market typically
reverses course. While this is not necessarily predictive it does measure
the current degree of fear present in the stock market.
How the Index Is Constructed: To create the index we found 10 indicators that provided a weekly, real-time measure of the conditions in the economic and market environment. We then standardized these components compared with their pre-crisis 10-year average, equally weighted their standardized scores, and aligned the resulting index with zero at the start of 2009. Because our index is tailored to the current environment, the components of the CCI are periodically changed to retune the index to those factors most critical to the markets and economy, so it may continue to be a valuable investment decision-making tool. The current component measures include: BAA Spreads, Business Lending, Commodities, Fed Spread, Initial Jobless Claims, Money Market Fund Assets, Mortgage Applications, Retail Sales, Shipping Traffic, VIX Index. For a more detailed explanation of each measure please go to: http://lpl-research.com/CCIDefinitions.pdf.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
Current Conditions Index (CCI)
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This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.
To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL Financial LLC is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.
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